Observer Life

When developing a business plan, the first stage is to identify and classify risks through risk analysis. Recently Brian Roberts sought to clarify these questions. Particular care should be exercised to the risks, the probability of occurrence is high, as well as those risks that can inflict maximum damage on the project. Having selected the most important risks are transferred to their quantitative analysis. The most important element of quantitative risk analysis is a sensitivity analysis. For its implementation shall be povarirovat various parameters project (prices, sales, construction period, inflation, etc.) and see how this changes performance. At the same time identifying the most critical parameters that may be most affected on the effectiveness of the project.

At the same time limits and calculated break-even point, ie actually reveals a lot of parameters of the project when the project will be effective and set the parameters of the project, in which he will be ineffective. Castle harlan takes a slightly different approach. Examines the range of possible values of uncertain parameters and, consequently, the extent of possible adverse scenarios of the development project. In the quantitative analysis Risk assessment is also expected effect (integral index) of the project, taking into account the quantitative characteristics of uncertainty (probability distribution, the range of changes of undetermined parameters, etc.). Based on the integrated performance of projects are subject to risks can make management decisions about the feasibility of the project, to compare projects with each other, etc. Today the most effective is a comprehensive approach to risk analysis.

On the one hand, this approach provides a more complete picture of the possible outcome of the project, ie all positive and negative surprises awaiting investors, on the other hand, makes possible a wide application of mathematical methods (especially the probabilistic and statistical) for risk analysis. In theory, the risks are the following types of mathematical models: direct, inverse and research problems of sensitivity. In direct problems of risk assessment associated with the determination of its level, is based on a priori known information. In inverse problems imposes limits on one or more input parameters varied to meet specified limits on the level of acceptable risk. The basic idea of sensitivity studies, applied due to the inevitable imprecision of the original information is a vulnerability, the degree of variability of output indicators in relation to variations in model parameters (probability distribution areas changes in certain variables, etc.). Findings of the study the sensitivity of the investment project reflects the degree of reliability of the analysis of project results. In the case of the unreliability of the analyst will forced to implement one of the following: clarify the parameters, the inaccuracy of which is the most significant result in the distortion, change the methods of processing raw data in order to reduce sensitivity of the response, change the mathematical model for analysis of project risks, to abandon the quantitative analysis of the business risk of the project. To avoid the errors described, after the development of Business Plan recommend ordering the expertise of the business plan (investment projects) have a third party. Remember that the effect of underestimating the risks today, you risk losing your money tomorrow.

To understand the reasons for which man must commit a certain action, try to find him a fear factor and the factors of profit. The fear factor implies that the client in order to avoid loss of something (money, work, status) is ready to respond to your offer, and gain factor stimulates the client to agree to your proposal, as it expects to receive certain benefits. It is important to understand that you do not sell your product and its features, and sell solutions problems to specific individuals. What are their problems a person may decide to accept your proposal? All at once, or only part? Significant or not? When we did the conference, half the audience of which came from the regions, we faced just this situation. Our delegates were the following problems: it was necessary to establish contacts with colleagues from across the country, to meet a guru in your field, get answers to their questions and to solve problems with accommodation and travel to the venue. We were the first in our industry who not only sold the right to visit the conference, but myself and booked a hotel parties, and provides a shuttle from the hotel to the venue and back. Thus, we have tried to solve all the problems of our clients, due to which our proposal was for them the most valuable. In addition, based on the fact that the solution always takes the man. While the man did not see or tried your product, you – the only one who can win or push him away from choice.

Today time to develop textile products for farm use as a raw material used stabilized polypropylene fiber, which occupies a leading position in this field. Its products successfully compete with the well-known to all plastic wrap. The development of modern technology is based on polypropylene to produce not only tissue but also non-woven fabrics (as well as textile lattices, trellises, special agrotrikotazha) significantly reduces the cost of production and expands its application. Spunbond is environmentally friendly, lightweight non-woven material. In contrast to the spunbond polyethylene film transmits light well, water and air. This creates the necessary climate for plants that can be watered directly through the material.

In agriculture, the spunbond used in three main areas: Covering material density beds Spunbond 17 g / sq.m. used to protect vegetables, fruit, berries, and ornamental plants in open ground, and shrubs from the scorching heat and freezing nights of short-term (up to -1 – -2 C). Air, water, light transmission and low thermal conductivity of the material ensure a favorable microclimate for plant growth. Planting material protects from insects, birds and hail. The use of fabric density 17, 30 accelerates the ripening of fruits in climatic conditions of Russia. Useful properties of sheltered spunbond: Prevention of hypothermia and heat plants, providing an optimum microclimate for their development; reduce evaporation from the soil surface, maintaining its optimum moisture content and reduced-irrigation; ensuring an optimal balance of night and daytime temperatures; lengthening the timing of fruiting plants; Reliable protection from pests and diseases.

Our enterprise has not lost market share, but neither won. 9 – At the tenth month offensive has: hired a new commercial. Acquired a specific computer to send information via fax daily. Information that was relevant to the managers of the offices. Customer loyalty 40 more for the same procedure joint meeting to review of records at no charge.

And staff focus on a new entity with 725 offices. At the end of 11th month 66% of the reports of the first entity and 15% of the second were channeled by our entrepreneurs. What would be the leader you attacked? 10 – The counter-leader to start the month twelve, and using the contacts and experience that gave him 10 years working with the Entities, pressured the managers of offices across the dome of local entities. Personally visited the 120 most loyal customers by offering the same service, the same price. He hired a shopping and established a system of routes that allowed commercial contact with all offices of the greater of the Entities at least 1 time per month. Service equaled the information by fax. He got in touch with providers of confidential information indicating that no further work with the newcomer. "There is widespread discouragement? In our entrepreneurial number fourteen months found a decrease in turnover of almost 40%, found that half of its information providers are not served him. It was found that more than 100 offices were not made to the phone and not received. Spread discouragement! 11 – Time to reflect and the offensive end at closing the month with a further decline in sales, held a rally unexpected – at least we did not expect – …